Our Models

MODELS

We operate across eight interconnected frameworks—each designed to measure a different dimension of the system, and together producing a unified picture of where risk and opportunity are forming.

  • Phase Transition

    Phase Transition

    Framework

    Measures when markets are moving from one state to another—from calm to stress, from stress to crisis, or from crisis to recovery. Rather than assuming reversion to normal, it identifies regime change as it is forming. Output: normal, stress, transition, crisis or recovery—with guidance on risk, cash, hedges and positioning.

  • Macro

    Macro

    Framework

    Measures the broad financial weather: liquidity, rates, inflation, the dollar, credit, growth and policy pressure. Designed to identify whether the macro tide is supporting or pressuring markets, and where the key interactions—oil, dollar, credit—are shifting. Output: tailwind, headwind or turning point.

  • Volatility

    Volatility

    Framework

    Measures whether markets are calm, complacent, stressed or mispricing risk. Low volatility can signal stability—or dangerous complacency if pressure is building underneath. Output: hedge, wait, reduce risk or prepare for opportunity.

  • Trend

    Trend

    Framework

    Measures which themes are strengthening and which are fading before they reach consensus. Ranks assets by momentum, persistence, structural strength and relative leadership—identifying where a trend is becoming durable enough to matter. Output: strengthening, weakening, early, mature or exhausted.

  • Geopolitical

    Geopolitical

    Framework

    Translates political, military, sanctions and alliance pressure into market risk. Tracks conflict not as headlines but as a sequence—pressure, escalation, chokepoint risk, and eventual de-escalation. Output: calm, tension, escalation, shock or de-escalation—with asset exposure mapped.

  • Commodity Commodity

    Commodity

    Framework

    Measures where real assets are moving from normal supply-demand balance into tightness, squeeze or shortage. Looks at supply, demand, inventories, flows, positioning and producer behavior. Output: own, avoid, hedge, wait or express through producers.

  • Constraint

    Constraint

    Framework

    Identifies physical-world bottlenecks that markets and traditional economics routinely miss—where demand is becoming inelastic while supply cannot respond, due to geology, physics, policy or industrial capacity. Output: the most critical bottlenecks and where capital may reprice fastest.

  • Emerging

    Emerging

    Framework

    Measures which technologies are moving from narrative to real adoption. Looks beyond hype to assess demand, infrastructure, capital flows, policy tailwinds and commercialization risk. Output: core themes, tactical opportunities or pure optionality.